Flawed BCS on Track to be Exposed

Nothing ever goes according to plan in college football. However, this year if things stay the way the are (a big if) – the plan seeks to expose the BCS for the sham that is. And hopefully, we can next year we can move to some type of a playoff system.

Take a look at the current BCS standings:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Cincinnati
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech
11. Penn State
12. USC
13. Pittsburgh
14. Utah

The all important aspect of the BCS selection is the difference between automatic and at-large selections. Thus far, the BCS bowls have chosen BCS schools for their at-large teams over options from other conferences. In other years, this may seem reasonable, but this year it will seem like a major travesty when a potentially undefeated TCU or Boise State is excluded from a BCS bowl – while multiple teams from the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10 are chosen with worse records.

There are five BCS bowls: the National Champion Game, The Rose Bowl, The Sugar Bowl, The Orange Bowl, and The Fiesta Bowl. The six BCS conference champs automatically qualify. Given where things stand now, Florida/Alabama, Iowa, Oregon, Georgia Tech, Texas, and Cincinnati would all receive automatic bids. Either Boise State or TCU can get an automatic birth if they are in the top 12 or in the top 16 and ranked above a BCS conference champion. Right now both TCU and Boise State are eligible to get an automatic birth, but only one can receive it – TCU has the inside lead, but Boise State could move ahead. That means based on the above standings that the available at-large teams would be:

1. Florida/Alabama loser
2. Boise State/TCU loser (they don’t play, but only one can get an automatic birth)
3. Penn State/Ohio State winner
4. USC
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston (if it can move up high enough)

LSU is excluded from this list for the time being because the SEC is limited to only two teams in the BCS. I think that it goes without saying that the Sugar Bowl will take the loser of the Florida/Alabama SEC title game (provided it happens). That means that only two of the teams mentioned above are going to get an at-large selection. It seems highly unlikely to me that both USC and the Penn State/Ohio State winner will be excluded from a BCS bowl, simply because their fans travel well. If that’s the case, there’s no place left for Boise State. And that would completely suck because would beat one of the teams playing in Pasadena (albeit for the Rose Bowl) and have gone undefeated and still gotten excluded from the BCS.

Is it possible that the individual bowl selection committees might pick Boise State over Penn State/Ohio State or USC? Sure. But it’s unlikely because you’re attempting to increase people and revenue to your event. USC/Ohio State/Penn State have large and rapid fan bases. It’s even more unlikely because if the Fiesta loses Texas to the national championship game, given the current standings, there isn’t another Big 12 team in the top for them to select – so they’ll be stuck with making two at large selections. I could be wrong about that, though.

But I think my point is clear: if things stay as they are, then the BCS will be exposed as a system that’s designed to reward the BCS’s schools’ pocketbooks at the expense of true competition.

Think about college basketball for a second. Let’s say in a given season, Memphis went undefeated but wasn’t awarded a number 1 or number 2 seed. Most of us would think that would be outrageous – they may not deserve a number one overall – or even a 1 seed – but they should at least get a 2 seed.

This season in college football seems poised to make that example a reality. An undefeated team, ranked in the top ten in the country won’t get to play in one of the five best bowls and ten other teams will. This will be so far removed from being fair, it won’t even be funny. And for Boise State’s sake, I hope things don’t go according to plan.

Thinking about Regional Rail

Awhile back, FiveThirtyEight wrote an interesting post about how American perceptions of different modes of transportation lead to different outcomes in how we use transportation (Link to that post). Particularly, they write that Americans are more disposed to use cars than planes because we have negative perceptions of flying. The article also points out that we discount the cost of driving, when making travel decisions.

The problem with their analysis is that they want to use our incorrect accounting of automobile travel as a justification for additional rail travel. The article fails to realize that forcing consumers to confront the real costs of driving is not plausible. In the real world, people discount their use of a car because they do not have to pay for the wear and tear applied to their car at the point that they use it. Most people, will assume that the cost of owning a car is a sunk cost, independent of the decision to travel. And this sounds like a correct assumption – car owners still have to make a payment on their car for that month whether or not they decide to go on a family vacation. The additional costs of travel are only those created by gasoline. If you’re interested in forcing people to make the correct economic decision, a regional rail system (or any alternative transportation system) is not the answer. Increasing the gas tax is.

However, I certainly agree that we could use more regional rail travel in the midwest between our large cities. But my rationale is not based on attempt to adjust my behavior to account for the full cost of owning a car. Rather, it is based on my hatred of driving in Chicago traffic and the fact that I feel like I lose a significant amount of my time. I want all of the benefits of flying at a lower cost without the disadvantages of delays and oversold flights. There are many paths in the Midwest that are similar to the Madison to Chicago route – where its silly to fly that short of a distance and burdensome to drive the same route (Milwaukee to Minneapolis is another example).

I think other people want the same thing and such an option would have the potential to subsidize economic growth between the cities involved – businesses in each city would get the benefit of reducing the costs of face to face contact and could increase the productivity of their employees.

My argument for additional regional rail travel is based on two additional factors: 1) a preference for urban environments and 2) the fact that I’m single (okay – engaged. Whatever, I don’t have any kids). I think the dislike for flying is still going to apply to rail travel if you happen to be unlike me. If you have to drive a significant distance to link-up to a regional rail system, you are still going to prefer to drive the entire distance rather than to drive and then take a plane or train to your final destination. Similarly, if you have to pay ticket prices for everyone in your family – you are far more likely to prefer to drive than pay for everyone’s ticket.

Can Debate and other things co-exist?

I’m remembering my love-hate relationship with debate. I love the interaction that I get talking about a topic and all of the things that one could argue. I hate all of the things that you sacrifice in order to do the activity: My pooch hasn’t gotten a decent walk all week, I haven’t had bike ride in almost two weeks, and somehow my sleep schedule is now back to where it was when I was an undergrad, despite the fact that I have 9 to 5 job.

Is there any one out there who can find a reasonable balance when it’s tournament time? Is the answer just don’t debate every weekend? Is my experience just like this because of the fact that I am not a teacher? I’d be interested in hearing from people who are in the activity.

Sheboygan has its priorities correct

I was reading the Wheeler Report today, when I found a story about the town I grew up in (Sheboygan, WI). I have to say from the story in the Sheboygan Press, my old home has its priorities correct. [FYI: my sarcasm detector is going off the charts.]

In a stunning move Monday night, the Sheboygan Common Council couldn’t come up with enough votes to accept an offer of $2.1 million in economic stimulus funds to buy five new buses for Sheboygan Transit.

Although the vote was 8-7 in favor of accepting the money for the five, 35-foot buses and other equipment, the measure needed 11 votes –two-thirds of the 16-member council — to pass.

Also on Monday night, the council voted 8-7 to move its Monday night meeting on Oct. 5 to Tuesday, Oct. 6, so as not to conflict with the Green Bay Packers televised football game against the Minnesota Vikings…

{link}

Let me see if I understand this correctly: Sheboygan can’t accept free money from the federal government to improve transportation systems for its residents, but it can change the time of government meetings to accommodate Packer games.

The best part is later in the article, they describe that the buses are at least 20 years old and the main reason for rejecting the stimulus funds was that “no one rides the bus”. No one, however, bothered to point out that there isn’t a large abundance of 1989 cars on the road either. Seriously? No one thought to think that the reason people don’t want to ride public transportation is that the buses are 20 years old.

Again: Ya’all got your priorities in the right place.

Obama Calls on Kids to Join Debate Teams

Okay. So I’m doing a bit of yellow journalism with the post title. But Obama’s prepared remarks for tomorrow’s speech include the following:

Every single one of you has something you’re good at. Every single one of you has something to offer. And you have a responsibility to yourself to discover what that is. That’s the opportunity an education can provide.

Maybe you could be a good writer – maybe even good enough to write a book or articles in a newspaper – but you might not know it until you write a paper for your English class. Maybe you could be an innovator or an inventor – maybe even good enough to come up with the next iPhone or a new medicine or vaccine – but you might not know it until you do a project for your science class. Maybe you could be a mayor or a Senator or a Supreme Court Justice, but you might not know that until you join student government or the debate team. (Link)

Now, if only we could convince all of the school districts who are carrying the telecast tomorrow to have debate as an activity and to fully fund it.

Icon-Only Permanent Tabs in Firefox

I recently came across this lifehacker link from a friend in Google Reader (Thanks, Bill). This is one of the most useful alternations I have made to Firefox in some time. Like the lifehacker poster, I always have gmail open. And I pretty much always have facebook and google reader open. This is usually three tabs of wasted space for items that simply run in the background. While I don’t have a netbook, I can appreciate the reduced space and clean design. This combination of add-ons; makes Firefox look so much better because I frequently have many tabs open. The only problem with this approach is that when Firefox releases its next update, if all four of the add-ons aren’t compatible, then the end result may not look the same as it currently does.

All-Star Game Management

No topic in baseball is as hotly debated as the All-Star game. Before the fans select the starters there are the questions of who should or should not be an all star (see: Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez this year). Then after the fans choose, the players choose, and the managers choose the all-stars there’s the questions about who got left out (see: Yovani Gallardo and Derek Lee’s June statistics). Strangely after all this, the fans get to vote again – effectively re-doing the first debate. Finally, we get to the game (after a pre-game ceremony that rivals the superbowl’s in length and pomp) and we begin talking about the game itself and what we can change about it.

We attempt to answer: whether or not home-field advantage in the world series should be tied to the out come of the game. How can the NL lose for that long? Et cetera. There are good arguments on all of these questions. One point I thought of last night is that the requirement that each team have a representative in the game is certainly a drag on the quality of players that the National League gets. With two more teams and a requirement that the NL have representatives from the D-Backs, Nationals, and Pirates; it’s some what understandable why the NL hasn’t won since 1996. Even the teams that are way out of a pennant race in the AL (Baltimore, Kansas City) have really good players in Adam Jones and Zack Grinke. And then factor in the significantly higher payroll that the AL clubs have and the AL is at talent advantage as a league. The reason that the NL wins world series more often than this is simply that all of these factors are not likely to effect an entire club.

Claims about the fairness of the game’s setup aside, I think the NL should have won last night and I’m willing to blame Charlie Manuel’s non-creative management of the game. Consider his best moves of the night: having Prince Fielder pinch hit for Tim Lincecum. This gave the NL the lead, but limited the home run derby champion to one at bat. A more creative management would have allowed fielder to stay in the game and gave the NL another power bat in the line-up. Manuel could have double-switched Fielder for Lincecum and Victorino. This means that you would stick Prince at first and move Pujols to the outfield. This isn’t an ideal situation defensively because your collection of outfielders after the switch: Braun, Pujols, Ibanez leaves you without a strong defensive center fielder. It also puts Fielder in a shitty spot in the lineup. But in game where you’re going to make lots of substitutions, the defensive alignment really shouldn’t be a concern and who cares if good bats are in poor spots in the lineup so long as they are in the lineup.

Managing the All-Star game requires juggling conflicting goals: you don’t want to over use another team’s player and at the same time you’d like to get as many people in the game as possible, and you’d like to win the game. Normal baseball conventions (you need a strong defensive center fielder) would dictate that you avoid strange moves and defensive alignments, but the National League’s situation last night required some management trickery and odd defensive alignments. Using Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard as pinch hitters only, meets some goals, but not others. And the NL was in a rough spot with Prince, Howard, Gonzalez and Pujols all first basemen and on the NL Roster. In order to use all of those good hitters, you’d have to get creative. I’m not sure how I would personally juggle the conflicting objectives, but I am certain that my approach beyond the first two innings would be unconventional. A strange situation seems to mandate one to defy conventions.

Similarly, I don’t think I would let players from non-contending clubs (save Adrian Gonzalez) bat against the AL’s best relievers. This is a spot where you’d like to use your best hitters and the NL strategy was to use some of their less than great ones. But this means that earlier in the game, the NL wouldn’t have been able to sub in players just so they can get an appearance – which is a difficult move in an exhibition game for the entire sport.

I am interested to hear other opinions. How would you manage the game? Do you get tricky with the defense to put in better bats hoping for double and home runs? Do you let Justin Upton face Mariano Rivera?

Northwoods League Stats unveiled

I am a season ticket holder for the Madison Mallards and have become a large fan of the Northwoods league. Particularly this year, when the Mallards have the best offensive team they have had since I’ve been going to the Duck Pond. As a baseball fan in general, I seek out statistics. Stats are an inseparable part of baseball, so much of the game is played around numbers. The problem is that the Northwoods League home site misses important information that mlb.com makes easily available.

On the Northwoods League site there is no elimination number. While not immediately important for MLB clubs (sans the Nationals), this number is important for the Northwoods League. We are heading into our last week of the first half and the winner of the first half makes the playoffs. Given that the south division has a pretty decent playoff race between three teams – you’d think you’d want an indication of where teams stand in that race. The elimination number is that measure for Major League Teams.

The other number that would be nice to know is the expected win/loss record of each of the teams. That is the calculation of a teams win/loss record based on the number of runs scored and the number of runs allowed. This provides some insight into how a teams offensive and defensive performance has contributed to their actual wins and losses. If a team has more wins than you’d expect, that means a team is “over-preforming.” Conversely, a team with less wins than you’d expect is performing below their talent level. Knowing this is crucial during a playoff race (for a fan). If you’re team is under-preforming and is only a few games back – its entirely possible that if you’re team plays at its potential, it could win the race.

Annoyed with the lack of these stats calculated for me, I calculated them myself. Here they are.

If you’re wondering, the elimination number for the Mallards is 4. (A combination of four Mallard losses and Eau Claire Wins eliminate the Mallards from the first season crown). Madison has hope though, Eau Claire has 10 games to go to reach the 33 game mark. I am not really sure how that works when a rain out game from the “first half” is rescheduled later. Do you count the first 33 games? Or do you count the games that are supposed to be made up later? If some one could enlighten me, that would be great. For now, with the information calculated, I can just wonder contently.

The summer air travel license plate game

As a vacationing child, I was prone to play the “license plate” game – especially on long, interstate travel. If your are not fimilar with the game, here’s how it’s played: you try to observe cars from with license plates from all 50 states. The first one to fifty wins or if non one reaches 50 (usually the case) – the person with the most wins. If you’re not competitive; the game can also be a collaborative effort.

The Holy Grail of the game is Hawaii. Because there is no highway that connects the islands to the continental US. DC and Canadian providences are usually fair substitutes, but no one gets all 50 anyway.

Vacationing this week by air travel has left me without my usual road trip distraction. No cars, no license plates, no game. That is until I realized that it’s summer and baseball season is in full swing. Finding caps, tshirts, and jerseys from all 30 teams (one from each) became the new game.

The hardest teams to find thus far have been the AL West teams. I’ve found the Rangers, but no one else. Come to think of it, the AL teams in general have been quite difficult to find. The NL teams on the other hand have been quite easy to find. On this trip, I am only missing three (Dodgers, Marlins, and Pirates). Atlanta was a virtual goldmine of team support – Raliegh-Durham was the least helpful. Although I think some went ran by with an oriels hat on, but without a full viewing if stands as unconfirmed. Even La Gaurdia was no help. In case you were wondering, the nine MLB teams with no support on my trip were: Dodgers, Marlins, Pirates, A’s, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays, and Oriels.

Memorial Forensics Honored; Others don’t compete

The Madison Common Council honored the James Madison Memorial Forensics team for claiming its sixth state championship earlier tonight. I found the proclamation fitting, giving special credit for the assistant coaches who are as dedicated to the activity as their/our head coach – Tom Hardin. (Check out the following Isthmus article illustrating all that Hardin does.) Here’s the text of that document, emphasis is mine:

WHEREAS, the James Madison Memorial High School Spartans forensics team finished the 2008-2009 season undefeated for the second consecutive year in the Wisconsin Forensic Coaches Association tournament season; and,
WHEREAS, the Spartan team is comprised of over 70 students from 9th through 12th grade, and the students prepare for the competition throughout the school year, and the team sent their top 25 events to the State tournament with 29 students including 19 Seniors representing the Spartans, and after 3 preliminary morning rounds; and,
WHEREAS, 6 individual students were declared State Champions and 7 more were awarded second place, and the Spartan team placed first with 332 team points, while the second place team had 285 points which is the largest margin in WFCA State history; and,
WHEREAS, Coach Thomas Hardin with the assistance of Tim Schefler, Beth LeMay, Andrew Gordan, and David Olson helped the team and individual members achieve excellence; and,
WHEREAS, the Madison community is proud of the teamwork, dedication and spirit shown by the students of the Spartan Forensics team; and,
WHEREAS, the Mayor and Common Council recognizes the support of the parents, student body, faculty, staff and all Spartan fans,
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Mayor and Common Council congratulates Coach Hardin, his assistant coaches and the entire Forensics Team on their successful season and 2009 State Championship.

One thing to point out: JMM hasn’t lost a forensics tournament in two years. The last time they lost was at the 2007 WFCA State tournament, where they took second. And even during that year, they had not lost a tournament. To find the last regular season tournament that JMM has lost, you’d have to go back to the 2006 Brookfield East tournament. That is much, much more impressive than what that sentence makes it sound.

Finding this online, I was curious to see how many other proclamations I could dig up online. I could only find the 2008 and the 2006 (2002, 2003, and 2004 are all displayed next to the championship plaques in the school). Again the emphasis is mine.

In 2008:

WHEREAS, Madison Memorial High School’s forensics team once again claimed first prize this year in the Wisconsin Forensic Coaches Association State Tournament; and
WHEREAS, the team scored 331 points to triumph over a field of 64 other teams; and
WHEREAS, individual team members won first place honors in six different categories: four-minute speaking, oratory, play acting, poetry, public address and storytelling; and
WHEREAS, this latest triumph is the school’s fifth state championship in eight years, continuing a tradition of forensics excellence;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the Mayor and Common Council recognize the great achievements of the Madison Memorial High School forensics team and their talented coach, Tom Hardin

In 2006:

WHEREAS, Madison Metropolitan Public Schools have high standards for excellence; and
WHEREAS, on April 22, 2006, the James Madison Memorial Forensics Team fulfilled and exceeded that charge by competing with 89 teams and winning the overall team competition (tying Appleton East, with a team score of 325 points out of a possible 375) and the 36th Annual High School State Tournament at Ripon College; and
WHEREAS, James Madison Memorial place 1st in Division 1 for the fourth time in the past five years; and
WHEREAS, forensics teams from around the state have prepared students for competitive events in dramatic and language arts for many years; and
WHEREAS, head coach Tom Hardin and other coaches view forensics as a way to make learning the arts fun and devote great energy to the program along with all members of the club, many of whom competed in the state tournament; and
WHEREAS, James Madison Memorial students captured first in 8 of the twenty-two events; and
WHEREAS, the team’s accomplishment has brought much well-deserved attention to Memorial’s arts program;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Mayor and Common Council of the City of Madison applaud the Madison Memorial Forensics Team and its achievement in winning the state tournament.
BE IT FINALLY RESOLVED that we hope their accomplishments inspire their peers at Madison Memorial and elsewhere to emulate the team’s high standards of excellence and to learn and use these skills that will serve them for a lifetime.

A couple points: In every year that Memorial has won, the city has emphasized the importance of this extracurricular activity. The common council has gone so far as to say that community is proud of these accomplishments. At best this seems shallow. Of course we are proud of our students accomplishments, but will we invest in successful programs and teachers?

Madison West and Madison Memorial are the only ones from the Madison Metropolitan school district that has attended the WFCA State tournament within the last seven years. Come to think of it – I’m appalled that over the long time that JMM has won state championships no one on the common council has asked how the high school that is in their district could replicate their success. If any would have asked, we might have suggested that going to the state tournament might be a step in the right direction. Unlike sports, everyone can attend the State Forensics Tournament. Yet, no one seems to ask the question why East and LaFollette are not participating in these activities. The Common Council has said that it hopes Memorial’s example will inspire others. It seems that the MMSD has not been inspired enough to field credible programs at East and LaFollette and it seems that no one is inspired enough to ensure that this important activity endures.

As someone who has worked with the Memorial Forensics team for years, I appreciate the sentiment the Common Council makes in every year Memorial is successful. But the time for proclamations is over. Forensics and debate in Wisconsin has been on the edge of a feather for the last few years. It is this kind of all talk, no action that will prevent future generations of students from participating in these activities. I understand that the Common Council has no direct influence over school districts, but it doesn’t sound unreasonable to assume they might have a passing interest. Do we want more inspirational teachers and coaches like Tom Hardin? Or is the MMSD content with giving some one a pay check without offering much educational advancement?